Originally published on Newshub - 02/02/2020

As COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the country, poorer Kiwis are set to bear the brunt of the pandemic more than those with money, predicts a political economist.

So far there have been 797 confirmed or probable cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand, with one person losing their life to the virus. Worldwide the death toll stands at more than 46,000, with over 900,000 confirmed cases.

Although statistically older people - those aged over 70 - have been marked as being particularly vulnerable, Associate Professor Brian Roper, a political economist from Otago University, says poorer Kiwis are also at risk of suffering disproportionately from the pandemic - both in the short term and the long term.

Lower-income New Zealanders have both a higher risk of being exposed to the virus and also of suffering more if they catch it, he said.

“The survival rate is going to be much higher amongst those in higher-income households because statistically those in higher-income households are less likely to have pre-existing health problems, therefore more likely to be able to recover,” Roper told Newshub. 

“Whereas, there is a much higher prevalence for pre-existing health problems amongst those in lower-income households.”

Lower income households were also likely to be more crowded, making social distancing harder. And with those earning less often living week-to-week, they have to make more visits to public places like supermarkets, leading to an increased risk of COVID-19 exposure.

“For people on benefits and low incomes there’s no way they’ve been able to stockpile foods to prepare themselves for the lockdown because they’re always waiting for their paycheck or their wage payment or their benefit payment in order to buy next week’s groceries.”

“The effects are likely to be felt for a very long time”

As well as the short-term impacts on those sitting lower on the socio-economic ladder, the country is also likely to see long-term consequences in the political economy that will not only affect lower-income households but could also see more New Zealanders become poorer over time.

“From very early on, economists from right, left and centre have clearly recognised that this is going to dwarf the global financial crisis of 2008 and be much more akin to the Great Depression of the 1930s,” Roper said. “You can’t stall the global economic system for this kind of period and on this kind of scale without it having a major impact on economic growth and unemployment.”

On Wednesday, Finance Minister Grant Robertson told the Epidemic Response Committee that the country’s GDP would “take a serious hit”, with Treasury also warning that unemployment could hit “double figures”.

- Newshub